02/19/2025

Last Week's Mortgage Rate Recap: Rates slightly improved 👍

Rates last week were volatile day-to-day, moving higher midweek when consumer inflation data came out showing inflation for January was higher than expected. By week's end, however, rates had recovered and after weak retail sales data on Friday ended the week slightly better.

This Week's Mortgage Rate Forecast: Rates likely to be stable 👍

This week is light on economic data, as well as a short week with markets closed for Presidents Day, which makes it likely that rates will not move much. There may be some day-to-day movement, but unless there is a surprise event, rates will likely end the week relatively unchanged.

What's affecting rates this week:

- Tariffs: Although many proposed tariffs have been postponed, continued concerns from traders could play at least a small role in mortgage rates for the week.

- The Fed: Markets are still contemplating the potential for Fed rate cuts later this year, and the minutes from the last Fed meeting will be released this week. However, Fed rate cut expectations will only play a small role in mortgage rates this week.

02/12/2025

Last Week's Mortgage Rate Recap: Rates slightly improved 👍

Rates improved last week, even as jobs data indicated a resilient labor market despite the Fed maintaining higher policy rates. However, the gains were small, with rates remaining relatively steady for the second consecutive week instead of seeing the expected volatility.

This Week's Mortgage Rate Forecast: Rates could improve 👍

A lot is happening this week that could impact mortgage rates, with inflation being the biggest factor. While some day-to-day rate fluctuations are expected, significant swings in either direction are unlikely.

What's affecting rates this week:

- Tariffs: While still making headlines, traders seem less concerned about tariffs, and they are not having a significant impact on mortgage rates.

- Fed speakers: This week features several speeches from Fed officials, with the most notable being Fed Chair Powell’s semiannual testimony before Congress, where he will discuss the economy, interest rates, and inflation outlook.

-Inflation: Consumer inflation data will come out on Wednesday and is expected to have the biggest impact on mortgage rates this week. Higher inflation could push rates up, while inflation in line with expectations should keep rates steady.

02/05/2025

Last Week's Mortgage Rate Recap: Rates basically unchanged 👍

Mortgage rates remained steady last week, with minimal reaction to the Fed meeting and Fed Chair Powell's press conference. The Fed left its policy rate unchanged as expected, but didn't give any clear indication that it would stop cutting rates this year. Inflation data for the week also came in as expected, helping keep mortgage rates stable.

This Week's Mortgage Rate Forecast: Rates could be volatile ⚠️

Last week was calmer than expected, but this week could bring volatility. Markets are responding to tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China, with stocks reacting more than bonds. Mortgage rates have already priced in the expected tariffs, showing minimal movement. Labor market data later this week could influence mortgage rates.

What's affecting rates this week:

- Tariffs: Markets will respond to tariffs and any countermeasures or retaliatory actions from affected countries.

- Labor market data: This week brings multiple reports about the labor market, including job turnover and layoffs, new jobs created, and unemployment numbers. Signs of labor market strength could pressure mortgage rates higher, while data signaling a weaker labor market could help rates.

01/29/2025

Last Week's Mortgage Rate Recap: Rates slightly worse 👎

Mortgage rates edged slightly higher last week, but the changes were minimal and not cause for major concern. There was little economic data to influence rates, and the Trump administration has yet to implement the tariffs that previously raised market concerns.

This Week's Mortgage Rate Forecast: Rates could be volatile ⚠️

This week rates could see significant movement. The Fed meeting and Chair Powell's press conference are expected to have the biggest impact, with additional attention on the first release of Q4 GDP and PCE inflation data later in the week.

What's affecting rates this week:

- The Fed: The Fed meeting concludes on Wednesday, with expectations the Fed will leave its policy rate unchanged after three consecutive cuts. The policy statement will be released at 2 PM ET, but Fed Chair Powell’s press conference afterward is likely to have a greater effect on mortgage rates. Any indication of continued rate cuts could lead to lower mortgage rates, while signs the Fed has paused rate cuts could push rates higher.

- Economic data: While secondary to the Fed’s decisions, economic data releases later this week - such as Q4 GDP and PCE inflation - may still cause rate fluctuations.

01/22/2025

Last Week's Mortgage Rate Recap: Rates improved 👍

Rates were helped last week after inflation data came in slightly better than expected. Fed Governor Waller added to the optimism in a CNBC interview, suggesting the Fed might implement more policy rate cuts than markets anticipated, and could start cutting sooner.

This Week's Mortgage Rate Forecast: Rates could move higher 👎

Let’s dive into what’s happening in the mortgage world this week. Whether you’re helping first-time buyers, seasoned homeowners, or anyone in between, here’s what you need to know to support your clients. 

This week, mortgage rates could creep a bit higher. 📉 Last week, we saw modest improvements, thanks to better-than-expected inflation data. However, with fewer economic reports to guide the market and a holiday kicking off the week, there’s a chance rates might tick up slightly. Looking ahead, rates are expected to stay near current levels for now.

What’s Affecting Rates This Week? ❓

• Market Volatility: 🔄 Economic news is light this week, but market reactions to recent events could create some small shifts in rates. Trump was sworn in on Monday and hit the ground running. We could see some volatility in markets based on the immediate actions he has taken and executive orders that are implemented.
• The Fed Blackout Period: ⚫️ With the Federal Reserve’s next meeting scheduled for January 28th-29th, Fed members won’t be making public comments this week. Last week’s reaction to remarks from Fed Governor Waller highlighted just how closely markets are watching the Fed’s moves.

01/15/2025

Last Week's Mortgage Rate Recap: Rates moved higher 👎

Mortgage rates rose last week, particularly on Friday, following the release of stronger-than-expected jobs data. The report showed a significant increase in job creation and a decline in the unemployment rate from 4.2% to 4.1%. This robust labor market data pushed bond yields higher and led markets to anticipate that Fed policy rate cuts would be delayed until later in the year.

This Week's Mortgage Rate Forecast: Rates could move higher 👎

Mortgage rates could continue to climb this week, depending on inflation data. If inflation shows signs of increasing, concerns may grow that the Fed will be unable to lower its policy rate and might even need to consider hiking later in the year. Even if inflation remains stable, it's unlikely that mortgage rates will move lower from here.

What's affecting rates this week:

- Inflation data: Tuesday brings wholesale inflation numbers, but it is Wednesday's consumer inflation data that will have the biggest effect on mortgage rates this week.

- The Fed: Concerns that the Fed will not be able to further cut its policy rate this year could pressure mortgage rates higher.

- 10yr Treasury yield: If the 10yr yield gets near 5%, mortgage rates will move higher.

01/08/2025

Last Week's Mortgage Rate Recap: Rates basically unchanged 👍

Mortgage rates started the new year unchanged, and that should be considered a win after watching rates move higher in the first half of December.

This Week's Mortgage Rate Forecast: Rates could move higher 👎

Mortgage rates are expected to rise in early 2025, and that trend could begin this week with strong labor market data and concerns about rising inflation. House hunters should get comfortable with these rates, because it is unlikely we will see rates move much lower without signs of a weakening economy and a softening labor market. 

What's affecting rates this week:

- Labor market data: Key reports this week will cover job openings, new job creation, layoffs, and unemployment rates. Signs of a resilient labor market support rates remaining at these levels or moving higher.

- Treasury debt: This week brings $119 billion of fresh government debt being issued, and generally an increase in supply will pressure Treasury yields higher, which could contribute to pushing mortgage rates higher.

- The Fed: Minutes from last month's Fed meeting will be released this week, and signs that the Fed is done cutting its policy rate for awhile could put pressure on mortgage rates.

12/31/2024

Last Week's Mortgage Rate Recap: Rates moved higher 👎

Mortgage rates edged slightly higher last week as inflation remained above the Fed's 2% target, signaling that progress toward lowering inflation may have stalled.

This Week's Mortgage Rate Forecast: Rates could move higher ⚠️🤮

Mortgage rates are likely to hold steady to begin the week, but could turn volatile when the Fed meeting concludes on Wednesday, today. Without clear data showing inflation is improving or that the economy and labor market are weakening, mortgage rates are not likely to move lower.

What's affecting rates this week:

- Fed meeting: The Fed is expected to cut rates for a third consecutive meeting in December, but is likely to signal a pause - or even an end - to further cuts as we head into 2025. A quarter point Fed rate cut will not help mortgage rates, because markets have already accounted for the coming rate cut and priced it in. Markets will be looking for signs of what the Fed will do moving forward, and any indication the Fed is done cutting rates will likely pressure mortgage rates higher.

- Fed press conference: Fed Chair Jerome Powell will hold his press conference after the Fed meeting, which is likely to cause more volatility in mortgage rates. as markets react to his remarks.

12/18/2024

Last Week's Mortgage Rate Recap: Rates moved higher 👎

Mortgage rates edged slightly higher last week as inflation remained above the Fed's 2% target, signaling that progress toward lowering inflation may have stalled.

This Week's Mortgage Rate Forecast: Rates could move higher ⚠️🤮

Mortgage rates are likely to hold steady to begin the week, but could turn volatile when the Fed meeting concludes on Wednesday, today. Without clear data showing inflation is improving or that the economy and labor market are weakening, mortgage rates are not likely to move lower.

What's affecting rates this week:

- Fed meeting: The Fed is expected to cut rates for a third consecutive meeting in December, but is likely to signal a pause - or even an end - to further cuts as we head into 2025. A quarter point Fed rate cut will not help mortgage rates, because markets have already accounted for the coming rate cut and priced it in. Markets will be looking for signs of what the Fed will do moving forward, and any indication the Fed is done cutting rates will likely pressure mortgage rates higher.

- Fed press conference: Fed Chair Jerome Powell will hold his press conference after the Fed meeting, which is likely to cause more volatility in mortgage rates. as markets react to his remarks.

12/11/2024

Last Week's Mortgage Rate Recap: Rates improved 👍

Mortgage rates improved slightly last week, helped by signs that despite headline numbers showing strength the labor market has cooled off from earlier in the year. Increasing unemployment makes it more likely the Fed will cut its policy rate at the December meeting.

This Week's Mortgage Rate Forecast: Rates should remain near these levels 👍

While mortgage rates haven’t returned to the lows seen in September, they have eased from the highs of October and early November. This week's inflation data and next week's Fed meeting could cause rates to fluctuate day-to-day, but significant rate increases seem unlikely this week. However, it's not likely we see rates move much lower from here either.

What's affecting rates this week:

- Inflation data: Consumer inflation data comes out Wednesday and is most likely to have an effect on mortgage rates, with wholesale inflation data coming out on Thursday. Declining inflation numbers would help mortgage rates improve, while signs of increasing inflation could pressure rates higher.

- Treasury auctions: There are a few auctions this week, and strong demand from investors would help keep Treasury yields lower, which typically benefits mortgage rates.

12/6/2024

Rates improved 👍

Mortgage rates showed improvement last week during the holiday-shortened trading period. The decline came as concerns eased over President-elect Trump's proposed tax and tariff policies.

This Week's Mortgage Rate Forecast: Rates could be volatile ⚠️

Expect potential fluctuations in mortgage rates this week as markets react to a slew of economic and labor market data. The general outlook suggests rates are more likely to increase rather than improve significantly as the year comes to a close.

What's affecting rates this week:

- Labor market data: A range of reports this week will cover job openings, labor turnover, private payrolls, and unemployment claims. The most significant update will be the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) jobs report today. Strong labor market data could push rates higher, while only unexpectedly weak results might lead to lower rates.

- Economic data: Reports on consumer sentiment and other economic indicators could drive rates higher if they point to a strong economy. 

- Fed speakers: Fed members will be out speaking, sharing opinions on if any more Fed policy rate cuts are needed to keep the labor market and economy on track.